Các chuyên gia dự báo, sau giai đoạn trầm lắng, nguồn cung bất động sản trong quý cuối năm sẽ có sự gia tăng mạnh mẽ, đặc biệt là phân khúc chung cư. Bên cạnh đó, đất nền và bất động sản công nghiệp cũng được dự báo là hai phân khúc sẽ sôi động những tháng cuối năm.
Thị trường “khát” vốn
Đưa ra nhận định về thị trường bất động sản quý 3/2022, ông Nguyễn Quốc Anh, Phó Tổng giám đốc Batdongsan.com.vn cho rằng, câu chuyện về nguồn vốn là trọng điểm được nhiều doanh nghiệp và người mua nhà quan tâm. Chính sách kiểm soát tín dụng vào các lĩnh vực rủi ro cao trong đó có bất động sản đang khiến thị trường gặp khó khăn về giao dịch và gây ảnh hưởng mạnh đến thanh khoản chung của thị trường.
Theo ông Quốc Anh, tình trạng khát vốn đã diễn ra từ đầu năm đến nay. Cả hai kênh dẫn vốn quan trọng là tín dụng ngân hàng và trái phiếu cho các doanh nghiệp triển khai dự án đều khá khó khăn. Bên cạnh đó, nhiều người mua nhà cũng gặp khó khăn trong việc tiếp cận vốn vay.
“Sức ép cho các chủ đầu tư là rất lớn trong giai đoạn sắp tới. Giao dịch bất động sản cũng đang gặp nhiều sức ép khi việc tiếp cận tín dụng của các nhà đầu tư khó khăn hơn. Thị trường đang có hiện tượng “ngộp” từ những người mua sử dụng vốn vay”, vị này nhận định.
Dự báo cuối năm sẽ có dấu hiệu tốt
Đưa ra nhận định về thị trường bất động sản cuối năm, đại diện đơn vị nghiên cứu này cho biết, tình hình địa chính trị thế giới hiện nay có nhiều yếu tố bất định, ảnh hưởng đến nền kinh tế cũng như thị trường bất động sản Việt Nam.
Cụ thể, chiến tranh Nga – Ukraine kéo dài hơn nửa năm qua đã kéo theo loạt khủng hoảng liên quan đến dầu mỏ, lương thực, ảnh hưởng đến giá nguyên vật liệu đầu vào…
Với nỗ lực kiềm chế lạm phát, FED đã liên tục tăng lãi suất. Không đứng ngoài cuộc, Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam cũng điều chỉnh lãi suất điều hành để thích ứng với tình hình mới. Động thái này sẽ ảnh hưởng nhất định đến thanh khoản của một số phân khúc trên thị trường bất động sản.
Ngoài ra, lãi suất tiền gửi tăng tạo lực hút dòng tiền vào ngân hàng. Lãi suất tăng cũng có nghĩa là lãi suất vay tăng theo. Người mua và doanh nghiệp bất động sản sẽ khó tiếp cận nguồn vốn tín dụng hơn.
Trong bối cảnh thị trường có những yếu tố bất định, tâm lý của người mua cũng có sự e dè, quan sát cẩn trọng hơn cả đối với đầu tư và nhu cầu thực.
Tuy nhiên, việc Ngân hàng Nhà nước cho phép một số ngân hàng nới room tín dụng vào tháng 9 vừa qua đã tạo lực đẩy cho thị trường. Chuyên gia đánh giá động thái này chưa thể giúp thị trường phát triển, bứt tốc nhanh được nhưng giúp thị trường có thanh khoản tốt hơn và tạo đà tâm lý cho các chủ thể tham gia thị trường.
Vì vậy, dự báo thanh khoản thị trường vẫn chậm vào đầu quý 4. Tuy nhiên cuối quý 4 thị trường sẽ có những dấu hiệu, chỉ báo tốt hơn.
Theo đó, dòng tiền lợi nhuận từ sản xuất kinh doanh và các kênh đầu tư khác sẽ đẩy vào bất động sản. Vốn FDI và giải ngân đầu tư công được dự báo sẽ tốt hơn vào thời điểm cuối năm. Ngoài ra, đây cũng là thời điểm lượng kiều hối lớn đổ về Việt Nam (dự báo 14 – 16 tỷ USD kiều hối 2022). Các yếu tố trên là trợ lực cho dòng tiền vào bất động sản.
Thời điểm đầu quý 4 sẽ có giao dịch nhưng thanh khoản ở mức chậm hơn một chút, cuối quý sẽ sôi động và thanh khoản tốt hơn. Sang đầu năm 2023 thị trường sẽ dần ổn định hơn khi các chính sách liên quan đến lãi suất, tín dụng, tỷ giá được ban hành ổn định.
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Cũng đưa ra nhận định về quý 4, Batdongsan.com.vn cho rằng, những tháng cuối năm thị trường sẽ sôi động trở lại. Có 3 phân khúc tiềm năng là chung cư, đất nền và bất động sản công nghiệp.
Cụ thể, nguồn cung phân khúc chung cư trong quý cuối năm sẽ có sự tăng trưởng mạnh, đặc biệt là phân khúc chung cư tại TP.HCM. Hiện các chủ đầu tư đã bắt đầu có những đợt mở bán rầm rộ.
Thứ hai, phân khúc đất nền cũng được dự đoán sẽ sôi động trở lại nhờ tiềm năng dài hạn. “Trong ngắn hạn 1-2 tháng có thể bị ảnh hưởng nhưng đây là phân khúc mà cứ gần đến cuối năm và đầu năm mới thì sự quan tâm tìm kiếm đối với đất nền cao. Hàng năm, cứ quý 4 đều xuất hiện những “cơn sốt” vì đó là thời điểm công bố quy hoạch mới ở các địa phương, gây tác động đến giá cả. Việc giải ngân đầu tư công ở thời điểm này cũng sẽ được đẩy mạnh”, vị chuyên gia lý giải.
Một điểm sáng trong thời gian tới đó là bất động sản công nghiệp. Nguyên nhân là do Việt Nam vẫn là điểm đến thu hút các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài. Kéo theo đó, bất động sản dân sinh gần các khu công nghiệp như các khu đô thị phục vụ nhu cầu ở thực và bất động sản công nghiệp tiếp tục là những phân khúc thu hút được sự quan tâm trong giai đoạn sắp tới.
Ông Nguyễn Quốc Anh đưa ra lời khuyên, các nhà đầu tư thay vì tập trung vào loại hình đầu cơ thì nên tập trung vào những bất động sản giá trị và những khu vực nào tạo ra giá trị cũng như dòng tiền và kinh tế địa phương phát triển ổn định trong tương lai trung và dài hạn.
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