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Điều gì sẽ xảy ra với thị trường bất động sản nếu lãi suất ngân hàng tăng?

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Nếu như lãi suất ngân hàng gia tăng, kịch bản chấp nhận phải cắt lỗ của những nhà đầu tư không đủ lực chịu được gánh nặng nợ vay từ ngân hàng khi ôm đất là điều có thể xảy ra. Dù không rơi vào tình trạng thê thảm như giai đoạn 2011-2013, nhưng thị trường bất động sản được dự báo sẽ có nhiều biến động.

Phân tích từ bối cảnh hiện tại, giới chuyên gia quan ngại, mức lạm phát của Việt Nam đang có dấu hiệu gia tăng mạnh nhất là sự 2 năm chịu ảnh hưởng nặng nề của dịch Covid cộng với sự leo thang của giá xăng dầu và các loại hàng hoá.

TS. Nguyễn Trí Hiếu, chuyên gia tài chính nhận định, so với thời điểm trước xung đột Nga – Ukraine, lạm phát của Việt Nam trong bối cảnh hiện tại đã đi vào khúc quanh mới. Áp lực sẽ không đơn giản chỉ là các yếu tố phục hồi trong nước, đứt gãy chuỗi cung ứng do dịch bệnh mà sẽ nặng nề hơn nhiều.

TS. Nguyễn Trí Hiếu cho rằng, việc hàng loạt các lệnh cấm vận được ban hành với Nga sẽ tạo hiệu ứng về mặt khan hiếm hàng hoá rất lớn, ảnh hưởng tới tất cả các doanh nghiệp, nhà đầu tư. Nếu tính trạng này tiếp tục kéo dài, khủng hoảng, lạm phát sẽ càng trở nên nghiêm trọng hơn. Điều này có thể khiến các ngân hàng thương mại phải tăng lãi suất huy động.

Ông Vũ Trường Thắng, Tổng giám đốc Winhousing nhận định, áp lực lạm phát tăng còn đến từ gói bơm hỗ trợ nền kinh tế cùng với việc đẩy nhanh hoạt động đầu tư công, giá xăng dầu tăng.

Đáng chú ý, đó là thông tin giá xăng tăng chính thức vào ngày 11/3 trở thành nhân tố khiến tâm lý nhà đầu tư lo ngại nhiều hơn về nguy cơ lạm phát sẽ tăng vượt kỳ vọng. Để kiềm chế lạm phát, lãi suất ngân hàng sẽ buộc điều chỉnh theo hướng tăng. Điều này cũng đồng nghĩa, khi lãi suất tăng sẽ tác động đến tính thanh khoản của dòng tiền đầu tư trong lĩnh vực bất động sản, bởi đây là kênh sử dụng đòn bẩy tài chính lớn.
Điều gì sẽ xảy ra với thị trường bất động sản nếu lãi suất ngân hàng tăng? - Ảnh 1.

Thị trường bất động sản được dự báo sẽ có biến động nếu lãi suất ngân hàng tăng.

Theo ông Cao Minh Thành, Tổng giám đốc MLAND Pro, tăng lãi suất là một trong những công cụ siết dòng tiền vào lĩnh vực bất động sản. Ông Thành phân tích, nếu lãi suất thấp, người dân có xu hướng rút tiền đổ vào lĩnh vực bất động sản để tìm kiếm mức lợi nhuận tốt hơn. Nhưng nếu lãi suất cao, ngược lại, người dân sẽ gửi tiền vào ngân hàng, dòng tiền vào bất động sản hạn chế. Mặt khác, lãi suất cho vay tăng, nhà đầu tư sử dụng đòn bẩy tài chính không có khả trả nợ sẽ buộc phải bán cắt lỗ.

Còn TS. Đinh Thế Hiển, chuyên gia kinh tế cho rằng, thời điểm cách đây hơn 10 năm, khi lạm phát tăng cao, lãi suất cũng được đẩy lên. Kịch bản xảy ra, đó là nhiều đại gia bất động sản ngã ngựa vì không thể chịu nổi việc trả lãi cho ngân hàng. Thị trường xảy ra tình trạng sụt giảm mạnh về thanh khoản. Thế nên, việc tăng lãi suất sẽ tác động mạnh nhất đến nhóm các nhà đầu tư sử dụng đòn bẩy tài chính mạnh.

Diễn biến của thị trường bất động sản sau cơn sốt nóng 2009-2010 đã bắt đầu dần đổi chiều từ thời điểm cuối năm 2010. Khi đó, dự báo về mức lạm phát 2 con số dần trở thành hiện thực, vượt xa mức dự kiến 8,5%, và chỉ tiêu GDP cả năm gần như chắc chắn sẽ hoàn thành. Ngày 5/11/2010, Ngân hàng Nhà nước chính thức nâng lãi suất cơ bản VND từ 8%/năm lên 9%/năm, mục đích là nhằm thắt chặt tiền tệ, kiềm chế lạm phát.

Cuộc đua nâng lãi suất của các ngân hàng bùng nổ. Một số ngân hàng đã sẵn sàng tăng lãi suất vượt trần, bất chấp cảnh báo từ phía Ngân hàng Nhà nước. Kỷ lục lục lãi suất huy động 17% trên được thiết lập vào ngày 8/12/2010 bởi Techcombank, vượt xa mức 11% một tháng trước đó.

Sang năm 2011, chính sách tiền tệ tiếp tục được thắt chặt hơn nữa do lo ngại ngày càng lớn về tình hình lạm phát, đặc biệt trong bối cảnh giá dầu leo thang, kinh tế thế giới đầy bất ổn với cuộc khủng hoảng nợ công tại Hy Lạp.

Theo báo cáo thường niên năm 2011 của NHNN, trong 6 tháng đầu năm 2011, cả lãi suấthuy động và lãi suất cho vay VND đều tăng cao. Cuối tháng 6/2011, lãi suất huy động VND bình quân ở mức 15,6%/năm, cao hơn trần lãi suất 14%/năm do một số TCTD khó khăn về thanh khoản đã “lách” quy định trần lãi suất.

Mức lãi suất tăng mạnh đã đẩy thị trường bất động sản đang ở nóng rơi vào tình trạng hạ nhiệt nhanh chóng. Trong năm 2011, rất nhiều dự án bất động sản đã phải tạm dừng hoặc dãn tiến độ do bị cắt vốn vay. Chênh lệch giữa cung – cầu rõ rệt, giá bất động sản rớt mạnh trên thị trường. Nhiều dự án bất động sản đã được hạ giá 30-50% trên thị trường.

Kịch bản của thị trường bất động sản ở thời điểm hiện tại khi lãi suất tăng sẽ không rớt thảm như 2011-2013 bởi các chuyên gia cho rằng sự điều tiết của Nhà nước đã nhịp nhàng hơn. Nhà đầu tư cũng thông thái, biết đánh giá phân tích thị trường. Song nguy cơ đói vốn và sự cắt lỗ là diễn biến sẽ xảy ra nếu như lãi suất tăng để kiềm chế lạm phát.

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